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Where does your area rank in the Covid recovery chart?


West Lothian, North Lanarkshire and Dundee will withstand the economic impact of coronavirus better than other areas of Scotland, according to a forecast by KPMG.

The advisory firm’s experts predicted GVA – gross value added – will shrink the least this year in those council areas, while Aberdeen, Argyll & Bute and Aberdeenshire take the biggest proportional hit.

The areas predicted to have the biggest bounceback next year are Orkney, Midlothian and Renfrewshire.

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Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, which are heavily dependent on North Sea-related business, had only recently shown signs of a rebound from the oil price crash of 2014. The impact of coronavirus on Brent crude has set back the area’s economic recovery.

Martin Findlay, senior partner at KPMG UK in Aberdeen, said: “Before lockdown, the north-east was already facing major economic challenges as the energy sector battled with oil price fluctuations and a global effort to move towards significant climate reduction targets.

“The huge decline in global demand for energy during the pandemic has significantly impacted producers and, consequently, the supply chain. Companies are facing the prospect of significant headcount reductions or restructuring.

“However, there is always a glimmer of hope. We’ve been here before and Aberdeen, more than any other Scottish city, has become accustomed to the big rises and falls.

“What is now needed is a truly combined effort to revitalise the economy, accelerating some of the progress that was being made on diversification of the region’s industry, and greater innovation in energy.”

Local authority

2018 GVA, £ million (nominal)

2019

2020

2021

Aberdeen City

9,022

1.0%

-8.6%

3.8%

Aberdeenshire

5,794

0.7%

-8.5%

4.0%

Angus

1,905

1.0%

-7.7%

3.8%

Argyll and Bute

1,951

1.2%

-8.6%

3.9%

Clackmannanshire

797

1.4%

-6.5%

3.3%

Dumfries and Galloway

3,412

1.2%

-6.7%

3.4%

Dundee City

4,043

1.7%

-5.4%

3.1%

East Ayrshire

2,057

1.1%

-5.9%

3.2%

East Dunbartonshire

1,568

1.6%

-7.5%

3.7%

East Lothian

1,676

2.1%

-7.2%

3.9%

East Renfrewshire

1,516

1.5%

-6.0%

3.5%

City of Edinburgh

21,173

1.1%

-6.4%

2.6%

Na h-Eileanan Siar

758

1.3%

-5.8%

3.2%

Falkirk

3,500

1.2%

-5.8%

3.3%

Fife

7,190

0.9%

-7.2%

3.8%

Glasgow City

23,360

1.2%

-6.7%

3.4%

Highland

6,400

1.4%

-6.9%

3.4%

Inverclyde

1,841

0.8%

-6.6%

3.4%

Midlothian

1,745

2.5%

-6.7%

4.1%

Moray

2,077

1.2%

-6.6%

3.3%

North Ayrshire

2,380

1.4%

-6.8%

3.2%

North Lanarkshire

7,578

1.2%

-5.4%

3.4%

Orkney Islands

636

1.3%

-7.9%

4.2%

Perth and Kinross

3,604

1.2%

-8.3%

3.8%

Renfrewshire

4,980

1.3%

-7.4%

4.1%

Scottish Borders

2,421

1.3%

-6.2%

3.3%

Shetland Islands

736

1.3%

-7.4%

4.0%

South Ayrshire

2,404

1.1%

-8.3%

4.0%

South Lanarkshire

6,507

1.1%

-6.6%

3.5%

Stirling

2,750

1.4%

-8.2%

3.2%

West Dunbartonshire

1,771

0.8%

-6.4%

3.1%

West Lothian

4,567

1.7%

-5.0%

3.6%

Scotland

142,121

1.2%

-6.8%

3.4%



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